FROM AID TO TRADE: IS CHINA REDEFINING ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS IN AFRICA?

INTRODUCTION

For decades, China’s engagement with Africa was characterized by large-scale infrastructure loans, resource-backed financing, and diplomatic overtures framed as "win-win" cooperation. 

However, recent shifts in global trade dynamics - particularly the tentative U.S.-China Tariff Deal announced by The White House in June 2025 - have prompted Beijing to recalibrate its African strategy. The deal, which reduces U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to 55 %, signals a potential easing of trade tensions but also compels China to diversify its economic partnerships beyond traditional Western markets.

Against this backdrop, Africa is emerging as a critical theater for China’s evolving economic statecraft. No longer content with being Africa’s largest creditor, China is increasingly positioning itself as the continent’s premier trade and investment partner, leveraging manufacturing relocations, digital infrastructure, and green energy projects to secure long-term influence. 

This op-ed examines whether China’s pivot from aid-driven diplomacy to trade-centric engagement represents a genuine redefinition of Africa’s economic future - or simply a repackaging of neo-colonial extractivism.

THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT: CHINA’S AID-FIRST APPROACH IN AFRICA

1. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Infrastructure Diplomacy

Since the early 2000s, China’s engagement in Africa has been dominated by concessional loans and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From railways in Kenya to ports in Djibouti, these projects were often financed through resource-backed loans, locking African nations into long-term debt dependencies (Brautigam, 2020). 

By 2023, China accounted for nearly 20% of Africa’s total external debt, with countries like Zambia and Angola facing severe repayment crises (World Bank, 2024).

2. The Limits of Debt-Driven Development

The sustainability of China’s aid-heavy model came under scrutiny as multiple African countries struggled with debt distress. Zambia’s 2020 default and Ethiopia’s debt restructuring negotiations exposed the risks of over-reliance on Chinese financing (Financial Times, 2024). 

Critics argued that China’s approach mirrored colonial-era extraction, where infrastructure investments primarily facilitated resource exports rather than industrial self-sufficiency (Carmody, 2021).

THE SHIFT: FROM LOANS TO TRADE AND INVESTMENT

1. The U.S.-China Tariff Deal and Its Implications for Africa

The White House’s June 2025 announcement of a partial tariff rollback (10%-50%) on Chinese goods has marked a turning point. While easing U.S.-China trade tensions, the deal also reinforced Beijing’s need to secure alternative markets amid lingering Western skepticism (Politico, 2025). Africa, with its growing consumer base and untapped manufacturing potential, became an attractive destination for Chinese firms seeking to bypass U.S. and EU trade barriers.

2. Manufacturing Relocations and Special Economic Zones (SEZs)

China is increasingly shifting low-end manufacturing to Africa to reduce costs and circumvent Western tariffs. Ethiopia’s Hawassa Industrial Park, Nigeria’s Lekki Free Trade Zone, and Tanzania’s Bagamoyo SEZ exemplify this trend (Brookings, 2025). These zones, often backed by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), aim to transform Africa into a global manufacturing hub - while ensuring Chinese firms retain control over supply chains.

3. Digital Expansion: Huawei, 5G, and the "Digital Silk Road"

Beyond physical infrastructure, China is deepening its footprint in Africa’s digital economy. Huawei’s dominance in African telecom networks and the rollout of 5G infrastructure underscore Beijing’s strategy of embedding Chinese technology standards across the continent (CSIS, 2024). This digital leverage grants China long-term influence over Africa’s data governance and cybersecurity policies.

IS THIS A TRUE PARTNERSHIP OR A NEW FORM OF DEPENDENCY?

1. Trade Imbalances and the Raw Materials Dilemma

Despite rhetoric of mutual benefit, Africa’s trade relationship with China remains skewed. In 2024, over 70% of African exports to China were raw materials (oil, minerals, timber), while Chinese exports to Africa were dominated by manufactured goods (UNCTAD, 2025). This imbalance perpetuates Africa’s role as a supplier of cheap commodities rather than an industrial peer.

2. Local Backlash and Debt Diplomacy Concerns

Some African governments are pushing back against perceived Chinese overreach. Kenya’s renegotiation of its Railway Debt and Ghana’s suspension of BRI projects reflect growing skepticism (Reuters, 2025). Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU are countering China’s influence through initiatives like the Global Gateway and Prosper Africa, offering alternative financing with stricter transparency clauses (European Commission, 2025).

CONCLUSION: A SUSTAINABLE MODEL OR STRATEGIC ADAPTATION?

China’s pivot from aid to trade in Africa is not purely altruistic - it is a calculated response to global economic pressures, including the U.S.-China tariff deal. While increased Chinese investment could spur industrialization, Africa must negotiate from a position of strength to avoid replicating past dependencies. The coming decade will determine whether this shift marks a genuine transformation in Africa’s economic trajectory or merely a more sophisticated iteration of extractive engagement.

References

Brautigam, D. (2020). The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa. Oxford University Press.

Brookings Institution. (2025). China’s SEZs in Africa: Industrialization or Exploitation?

Carmody, P. (2021). The New Scramble for Africa. Polity Press.

CSIS. (2024). Huawei in Africa: Digital Colonialism or Development Opportunity?

European Commission. (2025). Global Gateway: Europe’s Answer to the BRI.

Financial Times. (2024). Zambia’s Debt Crisis and the China Factor.

Politico. (2025). U.S.-China Tariff Deal: What It Means for Global Trade.

Reuters. (2025). African Nations Rethink Chinese Debt Amid Economic Strains.

UNCTAD. (2025). Africa-China Trade Dynamics: Trends and Imbalances.

World Bank. (2024). Africa’s Debt Sustainability in the Shadow of Chinese Loans.

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Author's Bio: Teddy Okello is an Advocate of the High Court of Kenya, Certified Professional Mediator, Commissioner for Oaths, and Founder of The Institute for Policy and Diplomacy, Nairobi, Kenya. His work and writings focuses on review, critique and development of national and regional frameworks for governance, finance, health, infrastructure, climate change/sustainable development, international trade, peace and security and geopolitics. His contacts are: Phone +254715310677. Email: instituteforpolicyanddiplomacy@gmail.com.

THE NEXUS BETWEEN FIRM FAITH, CONFIDENCE, AND GOAL MANIFESTATION: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY EXPLORATION

© Institute for Policy & Diplomacy 

INTRODUCTION 

The relationship between human belief systems and goal achievement has captivated thinkers across disciplines for centuries. From ancient spiritual teachings to modern neuroscience, the idea that faith and confidence shape reality remains a recurring theme. 

This paper synthesizes insights from psychology, behavioral science, sociology, theology, and metaphysics to explore how unwavering belief - whether secular or spiritual - functions as a catalyst for manifesting personal and collective aspirations. 

By examining empirical research, theoretical frameworks, and cross-cultural narratives, we argue that firm faith and confidence are not merely abstract concepts but dynamic forces that reshape cognition, behavior, and environmental conditions. This interplay, we propose, creates a feedback loop that enhances the likelihood of goal realization, offering practical implications for individuals, educators, and leaders.

I. Psychological Foundations of Belief and Achievement

1.1 Cognitive Mechanisms: Belief as a Mental Anchor

Firm faith operates as a cognitive filter, shaping how individuals perceive opportunities and challenges. Psychologists describe belief as a "schema" - a mental framework that organizes information and guides decision-making. When someone holds a strong conviction about an outcome, their brain prioritizes evidence aligned with that belief while filtering out contradictory data. This phenomenon, known as confirmation bias, reinforces commitment to the goal.

For example, an entrepreneur convinced of their venture’s success will notice market gaps, potential collaborators, and incremental progress, whereas a doubtful mindset fixates on risks and setbacks. This selective attention sustains motivation and creativity, as demonstrated in studies on positive illusion (Taylor & Brown, 1988), where mildly optimistic self-perceptions correlate with higher resilience and problem-solving ability. Recent neuroimaging studies further reveal that individuals with strong beliefs exhibit heightened activity in the anterior cingulate cortex, a brain region associated with decision-making and emotional regulation (Sharot et al., 2012). This suggests that belief not only biases perception but also enhances cognitive flexibility.

1.2 Emotional Regulation and Goal Pursuit

Faith also stabilizes emotional states, buffering against anxiety and despair. Neuroscientific research reveals that belief in a positive outcome activates the prefrontal cortex, which regulates fear responses mediated by the amygdala (Sharot, 2011). This emotional equilibrium enables individuals to persist through adversity, a trait linked to grit (Duckworth et al., 2007). For instance, students with high academic self-efficacy recover faster from poor grades, viewing them as temporary setbacks rather than existential failures. A 2020 longitudinal study by Yeager et al. found that adolescents taught to reframe challenges as opportunities for growth exhibited 23% higher persistence in academic tasks, underscoring the role of mindset in emotional resilience.

1.3 Self-Efficacy Theory: The Engine of Agency

Albert Bandura’s self-efficacy theory (1997) posits that belief in one’s capabilities determines whether goals translate into action. High self-efficacy individuals set challenging objectives, invest effort, and adapt strategies when faced with obstacles. Bandura identified four sources of self-efficacy:

1. Mastery Experiences: Past successes build confidence. For example, a musician who masters a complex piece gains confidence to tackle more challenging compositions.
2. Vicarious Learning: Observing others’ achievements fosters belief in one’s potential. Mentorship programs in workplaces leverage this by pairing novices with experienced role models.
3. Social Persuasion: Encouragement from mentors or peers strengthens resolve. A teacher’s affirmation, “You can solve this equation,” can shift a student’s self-perception.
4. Physiological Feedback: Managing stress signals (e.g., calming nerves before a speech) reinforces competence.

In organizational settings, teams with collective efficacy outperform others, as seen in meta-analyses of workplace productivity (Stajkovic & Luthans, 1998). Google’s Project Aristotle (2016) highlighted psychological safety - a belief that one can take risks without shame - as the top predictor of team success, further validating Bandura’s framework.

1.4 Neurobiology of Belief

Emerging research in neuroplasticity suggests that sustained belief can rewire the brain. Practices like visualization and affirmations stimulate the same neural networks as actual experiences, priming the mind for success (Pascual-Leone et al., 1995). For example, athletes who mentally rehearse performances exhibit improved motor skills and focus, a phenomenon termed functional equivalence (Jeannerod, 2001). A 2019 study by Church et al. demonstrated that individuals who practiced daily affirmations showed increased gray matter density in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, a region linked to self-valuation and goal-setting. This neurobiological evidence positions belief as a tangible driver of cognitive and behavioral change.

II. Behavioral Science Perspectives: From Thought to Action

2.1 Goal-Setting Theory and Commitment

Locke and Latham’s goal-setting theory (2002) emphasizes that specific, challenging goals paired with strong commitment drive high performance. Belief in attainability is critical: when individuals doubt their ability to achieve a goal, they disengage or lower standards. A study on weight loss found that participants who believed in their capacity to diet and exercise lost 30% more weight than skeptics, despite identical plans (Anderson et al., 2007). Modern applications of this theory include SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound), which structure objectives to enhance confidence through incremental progress.

2.2 Risk Tolerance and Strategic Persistence

Confidence reduces aversion to risk, a key factor in innovation and growth. Behavioral economists note that entrepreneurs with high self-confidence are more likely to invest in uncertain ventures (Koellinger et al., 2007). This aligns with Sarasvathy’s effectuation theory (2001), which describes how successful founders leverage personal agency to co-create opportunities rather than waiting for ideal conditions. For instance, Sara Blakely, founder of Spanx, leveraged her belief in her product to pitch manufacturers directly, despite lacking industry experience. Her persistence transformed a $5,000 investment into a billion-dollar brand.

2.3 The Role of Behavioral Activation

Faith without action is inert. Behavioral activation - a therapeutic technique for depression - illustrates how confidence drives goal-directed behavior. Clients encouraged to engage in small, meaningful activities (e.g., exercising, networking) often experience momentum that reinforces their belief in larger possibilities (Martell et al., 2010). A 2018 study by Dimidjian et al. found that behavioral activation reduced depressive symptoms by 40% in participants, highlighting the reciprocal relationship between action and belief.

III. Sociological Dimensions: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

3.1 Mechanisms of the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Robert K. Merton’s seminal concept (1948) explains how expectations shape reality. For instance, teachers who believe certain students are gifted unconsciously offer more encouragement, creating a performance gap between those students and peers. Similarly, job candidates exuding confidence during interviews often receive more offers, partly due to interviewers’ positive biases. A modern example is the Pygmalion effect in management, where leaders’ high expectations of employees correlate with a 15% productivity increase (Livingston, 1969).

3.2 Social Feedback Loops

Confidence alters interpersonal dynamics. A leader’s unwavering faith in a vision inspires team loyalty, attracting resources and collaboration. Conversely, self-doubt can trigger skepticism in others, undermining support. Sociologists term this status characteristics theory - individuals perceived as confident gain influence, further validating their beliefs (Berger et al., 1977). Elon Musk’s advocacy for SpaceX, despite early failures, rallied investors and engineers, transforming skepticism into a $74 billion enterprise.

IV. Theological and Metaphysical Frameworks

4.1 Christian Theology: Faith as Divine Partnership

Biblical texts like Hebrews 11:1 (“Faith is the substance of things hoped for”) frame belief as a spiritual force aligning humans with God’s will. Theologians argue that faith involves surrendering personal limitations to access divine agency, as exemplified by Jesus’ miracles linked to recipients’ belief (e.g., Matthew 9:29). Modern movements like prosperity theology extend this idea, positing that material blessings follow faithful conviction. Critics, however, caution against conflating faith with entitlement, citing ethical concerns (Walton, 2012).

4.2 New Thought and the Law of Attraction

New Thought philosophies, popularized by books like The Secret (Byrne, 2006), assert that focused intention and positivity attract corresponding outcomes. Critics dismiss this as magical thinking, yet proponents cite parallels with quantum physics, where observer effects influence subatomic particles (though such analogies are contentious). A 2017 study by Della Sala and Anderson found that while the Law of Attraction lacks empirical support, its emphasis on goal visualization aligns with cognitive-behavioral techniques, offering psychological benefits.

4.3 Eastern Philosophies: Karma and Mindful Intention

In Buddhism and Hinduism, the concept of karma emphasizes that intentional actions shape future realities. Mindfulness practices cultivate mental clarity, enabling adherents to align thoughts with ethical goals - a process akin to cognitive restructuring in psychology. The Dalai Lama’s teachings on compassion as a driver of personal and societal well-being illustrate this synergy between belief and action (Goleman, 2003).

V. Cross-Cultural and Interdisciplinary Insights

Anthropological studies reveal universal narratives linking belief to outcomes. For example:

• Inuit hunters visualize successful expeditions to navigate Arctic challenges, a practice mirroring sports psychology techniques.

• Japanese ikigai (“reason for being”) ties purposefulness to longevity, with studies showing Okinawans with strong ikigai exhibit 20% lower mortality rates (Sone et al., 2008).

• Nigerian entrepreneurs attribute business success to ayanmo (destiny), blending spiritual faith with strategic planning (Nwankwo, 2015).

These traditions echo psychological principles, suggesting a shared human intuition about belief’s potency.

VI. Practical Applications and Case Studies

6.1 Cognitive-Behavioral Techniques

Therapists use cognitive restructuring to replace self-defeating thoughts with empowering beliefs. A student fearing public speaking might reframe “I’ll embarrass myself” to “I’m prepared and capable.” Apps like Woebot employ AI to guide users through such reframing, demonstrating a 30% reduction in anxiety symptoms (Fitzpatrick et al., 2017).

6.2 Corporate and Educational Settings

Google’s “Project Oxygen” found that managers expressing confidence in their teams’ abilities boosted productivity by 12%. Similarly, schools adopting growth mindset interventions (Dweck, 2006) report higher student achievement. For example, a Chicago high school saw a 50% rise in graduation rates after integrating mindset training into its curriculum (Paunesku et al., 2015).

6.3 Athletic Performance

Elite athletes like Serena Williams and Michael Phelps attribute success to mental conditioning. Williams’ mantra - “I am the greatest” - exemplifies affirmation’s role in sustaining peak performance. Phelps’ coach, Bob Bowman, used visualization to simulate race scenarios, contributing to his 23 Olympic gold medals (Bowman, 2016).

VII. Criticisms and Limitations

Excessive confidence risks hubris, as seen in financial crises caused by overoptimistic investors. The 2008 housing collapse, driven by unfounded belief in ever-rising markets, underscores this danger. Additionally, systemic barriers (e.g., poverty, discrimination) can limit belief’s efficacy, underscoring the need for structural support alongside individual mindset shifts. A 2020 Lancet study noted that marginalized groups often face “belief erosion” due to systemic inequities, highlighting the interplay between personal agency and societal context.

CONCLUSION

Firm faith and confidence are multidimensional catalysts for goal manifestation, operating through cognitive, behavioral, and social channels. While not a panacea, their transformative power is evident across contexts, from personal development to organizational success. Future research should explore cultural variations and neurobiological mechanisms, while practitioners must balance optimism with critical realism. Ultimately, belief’s true value lies in its capacity to inspire action - turning the intangible into the achievable.

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Author's Bio: Teddy Okello is an Advocate of the High Court of Kenya, Certified Professional Mediator, Commissioner for Oaths,  and Founder of The Institute for Policy and Diplomacy, Nairobi, Kenya. His work and writings focuses on review, critique and development of national and regional frameworks for governance, finance, health, infrastructure, climate change/sustainable development, international trade, peace and security and geopolitics. His contacts are: Phone +254715310677. Email: instituteforpolicyanddiplomacy@gmail.com. 

THE UNRECIPROCATED HANDSHAKE: INDIA’S HISTORICAL OVERTURES AND CHINA’S RECURRENT BETRAYALS

“Historically, China has always betrayed India despite India's acts of friendship towards Beijing.” 

~ Ted Misinjro

Introduction

Throughout modern history, the relationship between India and China has been a complex and often fraught affair. Though the two Asian giants share deep civilizational roots, geographical proximity, and growing global aspirations, their bilateral relations have repeatedly suffered due to mistrust, geopolitical rivalry, and strategic misalignments. 

A central theme that recurs across decades is that India has consistently extended a hand of friendship towards China — a gesture that has often been met not with reciprocity, but with betrayal. From Nehru’s idealism in the 1950s to recent border skirmishes in Ladakh, India's policy of engagement has been tested time and again by China's duplicity and strategic maneuvering.

This op-ed explores this recurring pattern, shedding light on key historical episodes where India's outreach was met with aggression, deception, or opportunism by China. It also critically examines the motivations behind India's diplomatic posture and China's strategic behavior, offering insights into the lessons New Delhi must heed as it shapes its future China policy.

I. The Seeds of Idealism: The Early Years of Indian Foreign Policy

At the time of independence in 1947, India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, envisioned a post-colonial Asia bound by mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and shared development. Nehru viewed China — then undergoing its own revolutionary transformation — as a natural partner in this vision. Despite lacking a clear demarcation of borders with China and facing internal calls for a hardline stance, Nehru prioritized building goodwill.

India was among the first nations to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1950, even before many Western powers did. It also advocated for China's admission to the United Nations and supported Beijing’s sovereignty over Tibet. This marked a significant diplomatic shift, as India willingly relinquished its influence in Tibet — a traditional buffer zone between the two nations — in favor of peaceful relations with China.

But the goodwill was not mutual. In 1950, as China invaded and occupied Tibet, India responded with muted criticism, choosing not to antagonize Beijing. The signing of the Panchsheel Agreement in 1954 further underscored India’s idealism, promoting the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Nehru believed moral diplomacy would shape China’s behavior. History, however, would prove otherwise.

II. The Betrayal of 1962: A Nation Taken by Surprise

The clearest and most painful instance of China’s betrayal came in 1962. Despite years of diplomatic engagement, China launched a full-scale military attack on India across the Himalayan front. The war, brief but brutal, shattered Nehru’s idealistic foreign policy and exposed India’s strategic vulnerabilities.

China justified the invasion as a response to India’s “Forward Policy,” wherein Indian troops had established outposts in disputed areas. However, this narrative ignored years of Chinese provocation, including the surreptitious construction of a road in Aksai Chin — a territory India considered its own — and the rejection of repeated Indian proposals to negotiate the border.

What made the betrayal starker was the context: India had not only supported China diplomatically but had gone out of its way to placate Beijing’s sensitivities. The slogan "Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai" (Indians and Chinese are brothers), once emblematic of the bilateral relationship, died on the icy heights of the Himalayas.

The psychological impact on India was profound. Nehru’s health deteriorated, and the nation was left to rebuild its foreign policy from the ruins of trust. The 1962 war became a defining moment that still haunts the Indian strategic psyche.

III. The Nuclear Question: China’s Opposition to India’s Strategic Sovereignty

India’s nuclear program has long been a sore point for China. When India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 (Smiling Buddha), China swiftly condemned it. But the deeper betrayal came later. In the years leading up to India’s 1998 nuclear tests, China worked behind the scenes in international forums to block India’s strategic rise.

After the Pokhran-II tests in 1998, Beijing aligned with Pakistan to isolate India diplomatically. It pushed for sanctions and questioned India’s right to possess nuclear weapons — even as it had itself become a nuclear power decades earlier. China’s proliferation record also came under scrutiny, with reports surfacing of Chinese assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear program, directly threatening India’s security.

India’s strategic restraint — especially in not aggressively countering China’s support to Pakistan — was met not with acknowledgment, but with continued efforts to undermine its security architecture. The betrayal here was not of war, but of principle — the principle of sovereign equality.

IV. The China-Pakistan Axis: An Alliance Against India

Perhaps the most enduring and strategic betrayal by China has been its deep and unwavering alliance with Pakistan. Despite knowing Pakistan’s use of terrorism as state policy against India, China has consistently shielded Islamabad in international forums.

Be it blocking India’s efforts to designate Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist at the UN Security Council, or vetoing India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), China has weaponized multilateral diplomacy to thwart Indian interests.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), runs through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir — a territory India claims as its own. By investing in CPEC, China has not only violated Indian sovereignty but has entrenched its presence in the region, bolstering Pakistan’s strategic posture.

India, meanwhile, has largely refrained from interfering in China’s internal disputes — be it Hong Kong, Xinjiang, or Taiwan — hoping for diplomatic reciprocity. None has come. Instead, Beijing’s duplicity has only deepened.

V. Doklam and Ladakh: The Return of Border Hostilities

The 21st century has seen renewed tensions at the border. In 2017, the Doklam standoff emerged as a flashpoint when Chinese troops began building a road in a disputed tri-junction area involving India, Bhutan, and China. India, honoring its treaty obligations with Bhutan, intervened to halt the construction. The standoff lasted over 70 days before China backed down, but it revealed how Beijing tests red lines under the guise of infrastructure development.

Then came the Ladakh confrontation in 2020. In the Galwan Valley, 20 Indian soldiers were martyred in a violent clash — the first fatalities along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in decades. The incident shocked the Indian public and further eroded trust. China, once again, denied culpability, obfuscated facts, and manipulated media narratives to portray itself as the aggrieved party.

What made these events betrayals rather than mere conflicts was the backdrop: both countries had, in prior years, agreed to maintain peace along the LAC, signed multiple confidence-building agreements, and even engaged in summit-level diplomacy. Yet, China altered the status quo unilaterally.

VI. Trade, Technology, and Trust: A Fractured Economic Relationship

India’s economic engagement with China has also suffered from asymmetry and strategic mistrust. For years, India welcomed Chinese investments, technology, and consumer goods. In return, it ran a massive trade deficit — often exceeding $60 billion annually — while struggling to access the Chinese market.

Moreover, China has used its technological might to intrude into India’s digital ecosystem. Concerns over surveillance, data privacy, and cyber intrusions have prompted India to ban numerous Chinese apps, restrict telecom infrastructure investments, and tighten scrutiny on Chinese capital.

Yet, even as economic ties grew, political relations remained mired in suspicion. India’s willingness to accommodate China economically — despite political differences — was yet another gesture of friendship that Beijing exploited rather than reciprocated.

VII. China's Global Ambitions and India's Strategic Dilemma

Beijing’s pursuit of global dominance — through initiatives like the Belt and Road, assertive posturing in the South China Sea, and attempts to reshape multilateral institutions — has brought it into increasing conflict with other major powers. India, despite its commitment to strategic autonomy, finds itself gravitating toward like-minded partners such as the United States, Japan, and Australia.

China views India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with suspicion, branding it an “Asian NATO.” Yet, it ignores the fact that India’s pivot to strategic balancing is a reaction — not a provocation. India’s patience, diplomacy, and preference for peace have been met with intimidation and coercion.

The irony is stark: India seeks multipolarity and peaceful rise, while China demands hegemony and obeisance. This divergence in worldviews lies at the heart of the betrayals.

VIII. The Way Forward: Realism Over Romance

India’s future China policy must be informed by historical realism, not emotional idealism. Engagement remains essential — especially for economic and regional stability — but must be built on the principle of reciprocity and strategic clarity.

India must:

1. Strengthen alliances with like-minded democracies while preserving its autonomy.
2. Invest in defense modernization and infrastructure along the border.
3. Counter China's influence in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific through economic outreach and diplomacy.
4. Leverage trade and technology policy to minimize dependencies on Chinese systems.
5. Shape global narratives that expose China’s double standards and violations.

Friendship should be extended to those who respect it. China’s track record — from 1950 to Galwan — suggests that India must recalibrate its expectations and hedge its bets.

CONCLUSION

The arc of India-China relations is a cautionary tale of how idealism without safeguards can invite betrayal. From Tibet to Galwan, from the Panchsheel Agreement to CPEC, India has repeatedly reached out, only to be met with deception. This does not imply that hostility must define the future — but it does demand that India embrace a new realism.

In diplomacy, as in life, trust must be earned — not assumed. China has not earned India’s trust. Until it does, India must engage with vigilance, invest with skepticism, and prepare with resolve.

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Author's Bio: Teddy Okello is an Advocate of the High Court of Kenya and Program Lead at the Institute for Policy and Diplomacy, Nairobi, Kenya. His work focuses on review, critique and development of national and regional frameworks for governance, finance, health, infrastructure, climate change/sustainable development, international trade, peace and security and geopolitics. +254715310677